Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Marlins CHC @ MIA

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

81-63  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

72-72  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Clay Holmes
STARTING PITCHER

Clay Holmes

#25 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clay Holmes 6-6 2.09 1.07 81.2 63
Tyler Phillips 4-6 3.43 1.33 110.1 90
6-6 W-L 4-6
2.09 Ldr ERA 3.43
1.07 Ldr WHIP 1.33
81.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 110.1
63 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 90
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
51%
📊
MARLINS
49%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MIA)
CUBS 58% Book Odds: -137
MARLINS 47% Book Odds: +114
Book Implied: 57.80% / 46.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

36.3%

Marlins Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIA @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 MIA @ CHC 3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Miami MIA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .727
0
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.6% more
Chicago: 9.6 vs Miami: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +16.5% more
Chicago: 15.6 vs Miami: 13.0
Home Runs (Season) +16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +391.0% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.2 3
MIA Score 3.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.6 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.6 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 15.6 17.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.4 / 4.2 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +112 → -137 / +114
83%TICKETS17%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
80%TICKETS20%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48% 78-84
58% 93-68
55% 88-72
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 91-71
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-74
47% 75-85-1
TTL
56% 88-69-5
52% 81-74-6
53% 82-73-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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