Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Orioles BOS @ BAL

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

79-65  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

69-75  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Payton Tolle 8-6 3.23 1.10 131.0 147
Kyle Bradish 7-12 4.01 1.42 148.0 137
8-6 W-L 7-12
3.23 Ldr ERA 4.01
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.42
131.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 148.0
147 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 137
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
📊
ORIOLES
44%
RED SOX 57% Book Odds: -135
ORIOLES 47% Book Odds: +112
Book Implied: 57.40% / 47.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0 61%
Under 7.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

35.4%

Orioles Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
3.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
56% Win Prob
B
Sim Orioles Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.409
OPS
▲ .711
2
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.1% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Baltimore: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +26.9% more
Boston: 13.3 vs Baltimore: 9.7
Hits (L5) +23.2% more
Boston: 8.2 vs Baltimore: 6.3
Home Runs (Season) +9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.0 3
BAL Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 8.2 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 7.7 17.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 13.3 8.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.4 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -135 / +112
78%TICKETS22%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53% 83-73
50% 80-80
57% 90-69
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
48% 79-84
TTL
54% 81-70-5
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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