LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

54-89  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

71-73  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Walbert Urena
STARTING PITCHER

Walbert Urena

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Walbert Urena 9-9 2.85 1.26 123.1 120
Paul Skenes 9-11 3.97 1.16 149.2 179
9-9 W-L 9-11
2.85 Ldr ERA 3.97
1.26 WHIP Ldr 1.16
123.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 149.2
120 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 179
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
48%
📊
PIRATES
52%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (LAA)
ANGELS 41% Book Odds: +147
PIRATES 64% Book Odds: -179
Book Implied: 40.50% / 64.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 69%
Under 7.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (-1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

63.7%

Pirates Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 LAA @ PIT 6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.679
OPS
▲ .734
154
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +122.7% more
Pittsburgh: 3.9 vs Los Angeles: 1.8
Home Runs (Season) +20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +17.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 0
PIT Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.0 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 11.8 4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 11.7 6.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.9 / 1.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194 → +147 / -179 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
34%TICKETS66%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0