LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
54-89 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
71-73 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walbert Urena
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Urena | 9-9 | 2.85 | 1.26 | 123.1 | 120 |
| Paul Skenes | 9-11 | 3.97 | 1.16 | 149.2 | 179 |
9-9
W-L
9-11
2.85 Ldr
ERA
3.97
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
123.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.2
120
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 179
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
48%
PIRATES
52%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (LAA)
ANGELS
41%
Book Odds: +147
PIRATES
64%
Book Odds: -179
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
Pittsburgh
5.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Angels
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
LAA @ PIT
0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
LAA @ PIT
6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026
LAA @ PIT
0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025
PIT @ LAA
3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
PIT @ LAA
3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.679
OPS
▲
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+122.7% more
Pittsburgh: 3.9
vs
Los Angeles: 1.8
Home Runs (Season)
+20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.2
vs
Los Angeles: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.8
0
PIT Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.0
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 11.8
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 11.7
6.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.9 / 1.8
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194
→
+147 / -179
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAA
PIT
LAA
ML
52%
82-77
59%
96-66
52%
85-78
55%
89-73
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-65
50%
81-82
51%
82-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-74-5
50%
79-78-6
52%
82-75-5
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