ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
85-58 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
80-63 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 5-10 | 4.25 | 1.29 | 125.0 | 121 |
| Aaron Nola | 6-10 | 4.93 | 1.40 | 148.0 | 157 |
5-10
W-L
6-10
4.25 Ldr
ERA
4.93
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.40
125.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 148.0
121
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 157
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
PHILLIES
56%
▲ Edge: +3% (PHI)
BRAVES
52%
Book Odds: -108
PHILLIES
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
56% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Home Runs (L5)
+50.3% more
Atlanta: 1.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.5
5
PHI Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.7
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.1
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 13.5
15.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -106
→
-108 / -111
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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