Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Reds MIL @ CIN

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

88-56  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 12:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

69-74  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Harrison
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Harrison

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Harrison 10-4 3.45 1.20 107.0 130
Brady Singer 5-13 4.83 1.45 141.2 117
10-4 W-L 5-13
3.45 Ldr ERA 4.83
1.20 Ldr WHIP 1.45
107.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 141.2
130 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 117
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
55%
📊
REDS
45%
BREWERS 60% Book Odds: -147
REDS 45% Book Odds: +122
Book Implied: 59.50% / 45%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 50%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Brewers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CIN @ MIL 4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CIN @ MIL 9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026 CIN @ MIL 0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026 MIL @ CIN 8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.743 ▲
OPS
.699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +20.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Walks (L5) +19.2% more
Milwaukee: 3.8 vs Cincinnati: 3.1
OPS (Season) +4.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.6%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.0 8
CIN Score 3.5 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.7 / 9.5 14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 10.7 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 14.9 20.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.8 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -167 / +138 → -147 / +122 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
85%TICKETS15%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
55% 88-71
62% 101-61
49% 79-81
52% 84-78
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 94-68
50% 80-80
48% 78-84
TTL
53% 81-73-5
40% 62-92-8
54% 83-72-5
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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