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CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

1-4-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Balaidos

ATHLETICATHLETIC

2-2-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
CELTA VIGO
35%
DRAW
31%
ATHLETIC
35%
▲ Edge: +13.60% (Athletic Club)
36% Book Odds: +180
DRAW --
36% Book Odds: +175
Book Implied: 35.70% / % / 36.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 46%
Under 2.5 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
CELTA VIGO
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Celta Vigo)
Celta VigoCelta Vigo (+0.5) 0 AthleticAthletic (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.5% / 46.5%

Shots (On Goal)

8(2) / 17(7)

Corners

4 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Celta Vigo 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Celta Vigo)

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

21.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

15.9%

Athletic Club By 1 goal

21.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
0
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
38% Win Prob
C
Sim Celta Vigo Loss
54% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celta Vigo (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Celta Vigo (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.3 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Athletic 0 - 2
Dec 14, 2025 Celta Vigo vs Athletic 2 - 0
Jan 19, 2025 Celta Vigo vs Athletic 1 - 2
Sep 22, 2024 Athletic vs Celta Vigo 3 - 1
May 15, 2024 Celta Vigo vs Athletic 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Celta Vigo: 3.0 vs Athletic: 0.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Celta Vigo: 1.0 vs Athletic: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Celta Vigo: 4.0 vs Athletic: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Celta Vigo: 4.0 vs Athletic: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Athletic Club Score 1.0 2
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Celta Vigo Share: 50.0% Athletic Club Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
Athletic Club
ML
43% 3-4
83% 5-1
14% 1-6
17% 1-5
ATS
15% 1-5
67% 4-2
14% 1-6
33% 2-4
TTL
57% 4-3
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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