Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Deportivo vs Valencia Deportivo vs Valencia

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

1-2-0  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:30 PM ET
Riazor

VALENCIAVALENCIA

0-1-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
DEPORTIVO
61%
DRAW
21%
VALENCIA
18%
▲ Edge: +23.20% (Valencia)
35% Book Odds: +183
DRAW 33% Book Odds: +202
34% Book Odds: +192
Book Implied: 35.30% / 33.10% / 34.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 2.0 50%
Under 2.0 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
DEPORTIVO
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Deportivo)
DeportivoDeportivo (0) 0 ValenciaValencia (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

44.5% / 55.5%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 12(4)

Corners

5 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Deportivo -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Deportivo)

Deportivo By 1 goal

26.1%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

36.9%

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Deportivo Win
43% Win Prob
C
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Deportivo (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Deportivo (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 Deportivo vs Valencia 3 - 1
May 20, 2018 Valencia vs Deportivo 2 - 1
Jan 13, 2018 Deportivo vs Valencia 1 - 2
Apr 2, 2017 Valencia vs Deportivo 3 - 0
Oct 31, 2016 Deportivo vs Valencia 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Deportivo: 3.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Deportivo: 1.0 vs Valencia: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Deportivo: 4.0 vs Valencia: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Valencia: 8.0 vs Deportivo: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Valencia Score 1.0 1
Deportivo Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Deportivo (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Deportivo Share: 66.7% Valencia Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Deportivo
Valencia
Deportivo
Valencia
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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