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REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

3-0-0  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 11:00 AM ET
Santiago Bernabéu

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
REAL MADRID
78%
DRAW
13%
MÁLAGA
9%
▲ Edge: +12.90% (Málaga)
91% Book Odds: -1000
DRAW --
5% Book Odds: +2000
Book Implied: 90.90% / % / 4.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
4.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 4.5 44%
Under 4.5 56%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+2.0
MÁLAGA
Book Goal Line
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Málaga)
Real MadridReal Madrid (-2.5) 0 MálagaMálaga (+2.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.7% / 43.3%

Shots (On Goal)

19(8) / 14(1)

Corners

9 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Málaga +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Málaga)

Real Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

63.1%

Málaga By 1 goal

3.8%

Málaga By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3.50
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
4
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3.50
0
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Madrid Win
82% Win Prob
B
Sim Real Madrid Win
99% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Málaga (+2.75) Loss
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Sim Real Madrid (-2.75) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u4.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim u4.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 Real Madrid vs Málaga 4 - 0
Apr 15, 2018 Málaga vs Real Madrid 1 - 2
Nov 25, 2017 Real Madrid vs Málaga 3 - 2
May 21, 2017 Málaga vs Real Madrid 0 - 2
Jan 21, 2017 Real Madrid vs Málaga 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Real Madrid: 5.0 vs Málaga: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Real Madrid: 3.0 vs Málaga: 9.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Real Madrid: 0.0 vs Málaga: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Real Madrid: 12.0 vs Málaga: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Málaga Score 1.0 0
Real Madrid Score 3.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Real Madrid (Home) vs Málaga (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Madrid Share: 75.0% Málaga Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Madrid
Málaga
Real Madrid
Málaga
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
0% 0-2-1
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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