Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Chelsea vs Brighton Chelsea vs Brighton

CHELSEACHELSEA

2-0-0  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 9:00 AM ET
Stamford Bridge

BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

1-0-1  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
CHELSEA
18%
DRAW
21%
BRIGHTON
61%
▲ Edge: +15% (Brighton & Hove Albion)
52% Book Odds: -110
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +292
24% Book Odds: +309
Book Implied: 52.40% / 25.50% / 24.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 40%
Under 3.0 60%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Brighton)
ChelseaChelsea (-0.5) 0 BrightonBrighton (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

25.6% / 74.4%

Shots (On Goal)

17(6) / 15(6)

Corners

4 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)

Chelsea By 1 goal

11.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

4.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

26.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.80
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brighton & Hove Albion Loss
39% Win Prob
B
Sim Chelsea Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brighton & Hove Albion (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Chelsea (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 Chelsea vs Brighton 4 - 3
Sep 27, 2025 Chelsea vs Brighton 1 - 3
Feb 14, 2025 Brighton vs Chelsea 3 - 0
Sep 28, 2024 Chelsea vs Brighton 4 - 2
May 15, 2024 Brighton vs Chelsea 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +600.0% more
Brighton: 0.0 vs Chelsea: 6.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Chelsea: 14.0 vs Brighton: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 2.0 3
Chelsea Score 1.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Chelsea (Home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Chelsea Share: 33.3% Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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