Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Monterrey vs Atl. San Luis Monterrey vs Atl. San Luis

MONTERREYMONTERREY

4-1-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Estadio BBVA

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
61%
DRAW
21%
ATL. SAN LUIS
18%
▲ Edge: +19.10% (Atlético de San Luis)
52% Book Odds: -109
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +292
26% Book Odds: +288
Book Implied: 52.20% / 25.50% / 25.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 55%
Under 3.0 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MONTERREY
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Monterrey)
MonterreyMonterrey (-0.5) 0 Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

72.1% / 27.9%

Shots (On Goal)

26(8) / 9(4)

Corners

14 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Monterrey -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Monterrey)

Monterrey By 1 goal

26.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.80
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
3
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.80
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Monterrey Loss
55% Win Prob
B
Sim Monterrey Loss
83% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monterrey (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Monterrey (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o3.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 Monterrey vs Atl. San Luis 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Monterrey: 3.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Monterrey: 10.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Monterrey: 5.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 10.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Monterrey: 1.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 3
Monterrey Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Monterrey (Home) vs Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Monterrey Share: 66.7% Atlético de San Luis Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Atlético de San Luis
Monterrey
Atlético de San Luis
ML
44% 4-5
30% 3-7
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
ATS
53% 4-4
56% 5-4-1
44% 4-5
62% 5-3-2
TTL
44% 4-5
32% 3-6
44% 4-5
68% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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