TOLUCATOLUCA
6-2-2 | Home
4
JUÁREZJUÁREZ
1-0-9 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
JUÁREZ
18%
▲ Edge: +19.40% (FC Juárez)
73%
Book Odds: -268
DRAW
19%
Book Odds: +421
13%
Book Odds: +701
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25
34%
Under 3.25
66%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Juárez)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
64.7% / 35.3%
Shots (On Goal)
26(9) / 6(2)
Corners
5 / 3
Cards (Y/R)
1/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)
Toluca By 1 goal
26.1%
Toluca By 2+ goals
36.9%
FC Juárez By 1 goal
11.1%
FC Juárez By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.40
Juárez
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
Toluca
3
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.40
Juárez
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Toluca
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Toluca
Win
83% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
FC Juárez (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim
Toluca (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u3.25
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim
o3.3
Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
Toluca vs Juárez
4 - 0
Mar 8, 2026
Toluca vs Juárez
3 - 1
Nov 29, 2025
Toluca vs Juárez
0 - 0
Nov 26, 2025
Juárez vs Toluca
1 - 2
Aug 11, 2025
Juárez vs Toluca
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5)
+500.0% more
Toluca: 2.0
vs
Juárez: 12.0
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Toluca: 0.0
vs
Juárez: 3.0
Wins (L5)
+200.0% more
Toluca: 3.0
vs
Juárez: 1.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Toluca: 1.0
vs
Juárez: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score
1.0
0
Toluca Score
2.0
4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Toluca (Home)
vs
FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
FC Juárez
Toluca
FC Juárez
ML
60%
6-4
60%
6-4
60%
6-4
70%
7-3
ATS
50%
4-4-2
38%
3-5-2
75%
6-2-2
78%
7-2-1
TTL
33%
3-6-1
56%
5-4-1
67%
6-3-1
78%
7-2-1