ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
57-86 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
66-77 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 3-13 | 6.37 | 1.50 | 123.0 | 98 |
| George Kirby | 9-10 | 4.19 | 1.35 | 152.2 | 128 |
3-13
W-L
9-10
6.37
ERA
Ldr 4.19
1.50
WHIP
Ldr 1.35
123.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 152.2
98
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
35%
MARINERS
65%
▲ Edge: +2% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
33%
Book Odds: +201
MARINERS
71%
Book Odds: -249
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Seattle
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mariners
Loss
65% Win Prob
A
Sim
Mariners
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 5, 2026
ATH @ SEA
6 - 2
Sep 4, 2026
ATH @ SEA
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
ATH @ SEA
7 - 4
May 27, 2026
SEA @ ATH
9 - 1
May 26, 2026
SEA @ ATH
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Seattle
SEA
143
Games Played
143
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.97
.248
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.311
.407
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.375
.728
▲
OPS
.686
174
▲
Home Runs
163
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+12.9% more
Seattle: 4.4
vs
Athletics: 3.9
Home Runs (L5)
+68.4% more
Athletics: 2.7
vs
Seattle: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+31.3% more
Athletics: 21.4
vs
Seattle: 14.7
Hits (L5)
+14.3% more
Athletics: 11.4
vs
Seattle: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
6
SEA Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 11.4
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 21.4
7.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205
→
+201 / -249
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
57-86-0
(39.9%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
66-77-0
(46.2%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.8%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
73-66-4
O: 52.5% / U: 47.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
SEA
75-61-7
O: 55.2% / U: 44.9%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ATH
SEA
ATH
ML
50%
71-72
57%
82-61
53%
76-67
54%
77-65
ATS
61%
87-56
51%
73-70
52%
74-69
50%
71-71
TTL
55%
74-61-8
56%
78-61-4
84%
118-23-2
86%
120-20-2
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