Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rockies STL @ COL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

71-72  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-87  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Adams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Liberatore 5-13 5.41 1.47 134.2 141
Mason Adams 0-0 3.00 1.44 9.0 10
5-13 W-L 0-0
5.41 ERA Ldr 3.00
1.47 WHIP Ldr 1.44
134.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 9.0
141 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
52%
📊
ROCKIES
48%
CARDINALS 56% Book Odds: -126
ROCKIES 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.80% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
Over 11.0 46%
Under 11.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Colorado)
CardinalsSTL (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

36.3%

Rockies Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
4.8
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
52% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Colorado COL
144 ▲
Games Played
143
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.75
.244
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.387
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.704
OPS
▲ .740
154
Home Runs
▲ 158
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +37.9% more
St. Louis: 9.3 vs Colorado: 5.8
Home Runs (L5) +13.3% more
St. Louis: 1.3 vs Colorado: 1.1
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Colorado: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +13.9% more
Colorado: 17.4 vs St. Louis: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 6.2 7
COL Score 4.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.9 / 9.8 11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 9.3 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 15.3 12.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +103 → -126 / +104
78%TICKETS22%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 11 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
72-72-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
55-88-0 (38.5%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(54.9%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(53.8%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
64-72-8
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
68-72-3
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
57% 81-61
52% 73-68
51% 73-69
49% 70-73
ATS
60% 85-57
56% 79-62
49% 70-72
49% 70-73
TTL
56% 78-61-3
44% 58-73-10
84% 119-23
83% 117-24-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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