ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
75-68 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
73-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Pecko
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-2 | 3.49 | 1.14 | 111.0 | 73 |
| Ethan Pecko | 1-0 | 6.23 | 1.54 | 13.0 | 9 |
7-2
W-L
1-0
3.49 Ldr
ERA
6.23
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
111.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
13.0
73 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
9
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
ASTROS
46%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
Book Odds: -112
ASTROS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Houston
3.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
ARI @ HOU
3 - 2
Sep 5, 2026
ARI @ HOU
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
ARI @ HOU
1 - 3
Jul 23, 2025
HOU @ ARI
4 - 3
Jul 22, 2025
HOU @ ARI
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.2% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.9%
Arizona: 31.8%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
4
HOU Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 5.1
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 8.7
13.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135
→
-112 / -108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARI
HOU
ARI
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
56%
89-71
TTL
45%
70-84-9
52%
80-73-8
45%
69-86-9
49%
73-77-9
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