ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
75-68 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
73-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Pecko
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-2 | 3.49 | 1.14 | 111.0 | 73 |
| Ethan Pecko | 1-0 | 6.23 | 1.54 | 13.0 | 9 |
7-2
W-L
1-0
3.49 Ldr
ERA
6.23
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
111.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
13.0
73 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
9
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
ASTROS
46%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
Book Odds: -112
ASTROS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Houston
3.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 5, 2026
ARI @ HOU
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
ARI @ HOU
1 - 3
Jul 23, 2025
HOU @ ARI
4 - 3
Jul 22, 2025
HOU @ ARI
3 - 1
Jul 21, 2025
HOU @ ARI
6 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Houston
HOU
143
Games Played
143
4.43
Runs / Game
▲
4.51
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.240
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.315
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.408
.708
OPS
▲
.722
140
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Arizona: 24.2%
vs
Houston: 24.0%
Walks (L5)
+111.2% more
Houston: 4.5
vs
Arizona: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.9% more
Houston: 10.0
vs
Arizona: 6.7
Hits (L5)
+34.9% more
Houston: 6.9
vs
Arizona: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
4
HOU Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 5.1
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 8.7
13.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135
→
-112 / -108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
75-68-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
73-70-0
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
61-76-6
O: 44.5% / U: 55.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
71-64-8
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARI
HOU
ARI
ML
49%
70-72
53%
75-67
48%
68-75
54%
76-65
ATS
57%
81-61
58%
82-60
50%
72-71
53%
75-66
TTL
45%
61-74-7
49%
66-70-6
84%
118-22-3
87%
122-19
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