Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Royals TOR @ KC

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

72-71  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

63-80  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Max Scherzer 2-7 6.16 1.39 57.0 46
Seth Lugo 6-8 5.03 1.42 154.0 118
2-7 W-L 6-8
6.16 ERA Ldr 5.03
1.39 Ldr WHIP 1.42
57.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 154.0
46 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 118
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
44%
📊
ROYALS
56%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (KC)
BLUE JAYS 51% Book Odds: -103
ROYALS 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 50.70% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 45%
Under 9.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

63.7%

Royals Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .718
152
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +71.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Toronto: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +11.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.5% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season) +2.6%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.8 4
KC Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.6 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 6.0 5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 15.6 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -104 / -106 → -103 / -105
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
63%TICKETS37%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55% 89-72
46% 74-87
56% 90-70
50% 80-80
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 90-71
58% 93-67
49% 79-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 80-76-5
54% 83-70-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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