TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
72-71 | Road
4
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
63-80 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 2-7 | 6.16 | 1.39 | 57.0 | 46 |
| Seth Lugo | 6-8 | 5.03 | 1.42 | 154.0 | 118 |
2-7
W-L
6-8
6.16
ERA
Ldr 5.03
1.39 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
57.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 154.0
46
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 118
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
44%
ROYALS
56%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (KC)
BLUE JAYS
53%
Book Odds: -111
ROYALS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
45%
Under 9.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.50
Kansas City
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.50
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Royals
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TOR @ KC
1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026
TOR @ KC
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TOR @ KC
9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026
KC @ TOR
13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
KC @ TOR
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Kansas City
KC
144
▲
Games Played
143
4.03
Runs / Game
▲
4.27
.248
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.309
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.382
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.718
135
Home Runs
▲
149
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+71.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6
vs
Toronto: 0.9
Home Runs (Season)
+10.4% more
Kansas City: 149.0
vs
Toronto: 135.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.0% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+2.7%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
Toronto: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.8
4
KC Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 10.6
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 6.0
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 15.6
11.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.1
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -137
→
-111 / -108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
72-72-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
64-80-0
(44.4%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(48.6%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(49.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
71-68-5
O: 51.1% / U: 48.9%
Total +/-: +0.3
KC
66-74-4
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55%
79-64
47%
67-77
55%
78-64
50%
71-72
ATS
58%
83-60
57%
82-62
56%
79-63
50%
71-72
TTL
58%
80-57-6
48%
67-72-5
84%
117-22-3
86%
122-20-1
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