Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Rangers TB @ TEX

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

85-57  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

70-73  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Rasmussen 14-5 2.95 0.93 146.1 149
Jacob deGrom 10-9 4.00 1.13 137.1 167
14-5 W-L 10-9
2.95 Ldr ERA 4.00
0.93 Ldr WHIP 1.13
146.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 137.1
149 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 167
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
56%
📊
RANGERS
44%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (TB)
RAYS 52% Book Odds: -107
RANGERS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 51.70% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 69%
Under 7.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Texas)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Texas Rangers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

36.3%

Rangers Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TB @ TEX 7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026 TB @ TEX 0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026 TEX @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728 ▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +8.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Texas: 4.2
Batting Avg (Season) +1.6%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Texas: 24.2%
OPS (Season) +1.5%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Texas: 71.3%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Tampa Bay: 32.6% vs Texas: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.2 6
TEX Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.7 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.0 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 13.8 13.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.2 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -107 / -112 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
66%TICKETS34%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53% 86-76
58% 95-68
57% 91-70
58% 95-68
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-66
61% 98-63
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 78-70-14
47% 73-81-9
55% 81-66-14
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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