BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
78-65 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-74 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Bassitt
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 16-4 | 2.82 | 1.18 | 143.2 | 128 |
| Chris Bassitt | 6-4 | 4.97 | 1.58 | 79.2 | 55 |
16-4
W-L
6-4
2.82 Ldr
ERA
4.97
1.18 Ldr
WHIP
1.58
143.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
79.2
128 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
55
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
61%
ORIOLES
39%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (BOS)
RED SOX
56%
Book Odds: -126
ORIOLES
49%
Book Odds: +105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.6% more
Boston: 1.8
vs
Baltimore: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+29.3% more
Boston: 15.0
vs
Baltimore: 10.6
Hits (L5)
+11.0% more
Boston: 7.8
vs
Baltimore: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.2
5
BAL Score
3.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 7.8
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 6.6
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 15.0
8.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.6
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +112
→
-126 / +105
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
Padres and Brewers: A Friendly Rivalry Rooted in Shared History
Shane Baz's First Year with Orioles: A Mediocre Showing Raises Q…