MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
88-55 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
68-74 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 6-9 | 4.69 | 1.32 | 128.2 | 122 |
| Andrew Abbott | 6-10 | 4.49 | 1.44 | 148.1 | 115 |
6-9
W-L
6-10
4.69
ERA
Ldr 4.49
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.44
128.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 148.1
122 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
115
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
50%
REDS
50%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (CIN)
BREWERS
61%
Book Odds: -156
REDS
44%
Book Odds: +129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
45%
Under 9.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Sep 4, 2026
MIL @ CIN
10 - 7
Jul 2, 2026
CIN @ MIL
7 - 2
Jul 1, 2026
CIN @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
144
▲
Games Played
143
5.04
▲
Runs / Game
4.23
.256
▲
Avg (AVG)
.231
.339
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.399
.739
▲
OPS
.709
133
Home Runs
▲
192
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+111.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.9
vs
Milwaukee: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
Milwaukee: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+44.4% more
Cincinnati: 192.0
vs
Milwaukee: 133.0
Walks (L5)
+11.1% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Milwaukee: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.5
3
CIN Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 10.3
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.0
12.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 16.3
22.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.7
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -168 / +139
→
-156 / +129
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
88-56-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
69-74-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
64-76-4
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
76-65-2
O: 53.9% / U: 46.1%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
53%
74-66
60%
84-56
48%
68-73
50%
70-70
ATS
54%
76-64
58%
81-59
49%
69-72
48%
67-73
TTL
54%
74-63-3
40%
54-80-6
83%
116-24-1
86%
118-20-2
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