LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
54-88 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
70-73 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yusei Kikuchi
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 0-5 | 5.65 | 1.49 | 43.0 | 43 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | 14-5 | 3.59 | 1.08 | 160.1 | 164 |
0-5
W-L
14-5
5.65
ERA
Ldr 3.59
1.49
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
43.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 160.1
43
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 164
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
41%
PIRATES
59%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (LAA)
ANGELS
39%
Book Odds: +158
PIRATES
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Pittsburgh
5.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
LAA @ PIT
0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
LAA @ PIT
6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026
LAA @ PIT
0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025
PIT @ LAA
3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
PIT @ LAA
3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.679
OPS
▲
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+46.8% more
Pittsburgh: 3.9
vs
Los Angeles: 2.7
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Pittsburgh: 7.4
vs
Los Angeles: 5.9
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.3
vs
Los Angeles: 0.0
Home Runs (Season)
+20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.8
6
PIT Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 5.9
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 11.2
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 8.6
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.7
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118
→
+158 / -193
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
7.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAA
PIT
LAA
ML
52%
82-77
59%
96-66
52%
85-78
55%
89-73
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-65
50%
81-82
51%
82-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-74-5
50%
79-78-6
52%
82-75-5
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