DETROIT
TIGERSDET
65-77 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
72-71 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 8-10 | 4.36 | 1.40 | 150.2 | 116 |
| Parker Messick | 11-8 | 2.46 | 1.02 | 161.0 | 161 |
8-10
W-L
11-8
4.36
ERA
Ldr 2.46
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.02
150.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 161.0
116
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 161
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
36%
GUARDIANS
64%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (CLE)
TIGERS
43%
Book Odds: +134
GUARDIANS
62%
Book Odds: -163
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
64% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2
vs
Detroit: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+9.2% more
Cleveland: 14.8
vs
Detroit: 13.6
Walks (L5)
+9.1% more
Cleveland: 3.4
vs
Detroit: 3.1
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Detroit: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.8
6
CLE Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 9.3
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.6
16.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 13.6
3.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +126 / -148
→
+134 / -163
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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