ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
84-58 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
80-62 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 8-8 | 3.05 | 1.21 | 121.0 | 91 |
| Zack Wheeler | 11-5 | 3.31 | 1.09 | 130.1 | 154 |
8-8
W-L
11-5
3.05 Ldr
ERA
3.31
1.21
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
121.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 130.1
91
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 154
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
PHILLIES
60%
BRAVES
42%
Book Odds: +137
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -166
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.7% more
Philadelphia: 8.8
vs
Atlanta: 7.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.5
2
PHI Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.0
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.7
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 14.8
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.4
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+137 / -166
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…