Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Phillies ATL @ PHI

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

84-58  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

80-62  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Martin Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Martin Perez

#33 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Martin Perez 8-8 3.05 1.21 121.0 91
Zack Wheeler 11-5 3.31 1.09 130.1 154
8-8 W-L 11-5
3.05 Ldr ERA 3.31
1.21 WHIP Ldr 1.09
121.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.1
91 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 154
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
📊
PHILLIES
60%
BRAVES 42% Book Odds: +137
PHILLIES 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 42.20% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BravesATL (+1.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

64.6%

Phillies Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ATL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Phillies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 ATL @ PHI 5 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 ATL @ PHI 2 - 4
Sep 4, 2026 ATL @ PHI 5 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 PHI @ ATL 8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
143
Games Played
143
4.65 ▲
Runs / Game
4.48
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.312
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.413 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.725 ▲
OPS
.713
182 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +14.7% more
Philadelphia: 8.8 vs Atlanta: 7.7
Walks (L5) +56.1% more
Atlanta: 3.4 vs Philadelphia: 1.5
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
Atlanta: 1.3 vs Philadelphia: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.5 2
PHI Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 9.0 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.7 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 14.8 14.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.5 / 3.4 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163 → +137 / -166
28%TICKETS72%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
41%TICKETS59%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
85-58-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
PHI
80-63-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(53.2%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
PHI
(42.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
64-72-7
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
64-70-9
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
58% 83-59
45% 64-77
51% 72-70
54% 76-66
ATS
65% 93-49
57% 81-60
47% 67-75
52% 74-68
TTL
57% 76-58-8
54% 72-62-7
86% 118-20-4
84% 119-22-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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