Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Marlins CHC @ MIA

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

81-62  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

71-72  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Assad 6-1 3.46 1.10 83.1 55
Ryan Gusto 1-3 3.86 1.33 67.2 57
6-1 W-L 1-3
3.46 Ldr ERA 3.86
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.33
83.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 67.2
55 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 57
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
57%
📊
MARLINS
43%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (CHC)
CUBS 56% Book Odds: -126
MARLINS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.80% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

36.3%

Marlins Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
57% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Sep 4, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 1
May 21, 2025 CHC @ MIA 2 - 1
May 20, 2025 CHC @ MIA 14 - 1
May 19, 2025 CHC @ MIA 7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Miami MIA
143
Games Played
143
5.35 ▲
Runs / Game
4.34
.252 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.340 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.325
.432 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.398
.772 ▲
OPS
.724
200 ▲
Home Runs
146
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +27.3% more
Chicago: 1.7 vs Miami: 1.2
Home Runs (Season) +27.0% more
Chicago: 200.0 vs Miami: 146.0
Runs per Game (Season) +18.9% more
Chicago: 5.4 vs Miami: 4.3
Hits (L5) +13.2% more
Chicago: 7.9 vs Miami: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.2 6
MIA Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.9 6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.9 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 14.4 14.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.8 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +143 → -126 / +104 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
81-62-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-:
MIA
71-72-0 (49.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
79-62-2
O: 56.0% / U: 44.0% Total +/-: +1.1
MIA
70-69-4
O: 50.4% / U: 49.6% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
49% 70-73
56% 79-62
53% 75-66
53% 74-66
ATS
59% 84-59
58% 81-59-1
52% 73-68
51% 72-68
TTL
53% 74-65-4
52% 71-66-4
84% 117-23-1
82% 114-25-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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