CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
81-62 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
71-72 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Assad
#72 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | 6-1 | 3.46 | 1.10 | 83.1 | 55 |
| Ryan Gusto | 1-3 | 3.86 | 1.33 | 67.2 | 57 |
6-1
W-L
1-3
3.46 Ldr
ERA
3.86
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
83.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
67.2
55
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 57
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
57%
MARLINS
43%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (CHC)
CUBS
56%
Book Odds: -126
MARLINS
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
57% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Win
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.374
OPS
▲
.727
0
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+27.3% more
Chicago: 1.7
vs
Miami: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+13.2% more
Chicago: 7.9
vs
Miami: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+12.9% more
Chicago: 14.4
vs
Miami: 12.5
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.2
6
MIA Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.9
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.9
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 14.4
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.8
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +143
→
-126 / +104
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48%
78-84
58%
93-68
55%
88-72
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-73-5
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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