WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
67-76 | Road
3
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
84-57 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Kent
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Blake Snell
#7 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Kent | 1-2 | 5.59 | 1.71 | 19.1 | 17 |
| Blake Snell | 2-1 | 2.42 | 1.08 | 26.0 | 36 |
1-2
W-L
2-1
5.59
ERA
Ldr 2.42
1.71
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
19.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 26.0
17
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 36
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
32%
DODGERS
68%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (WSH)
NATIONALS
31%
Book Odds: +224
DODGERS
74%
Book Odds: -280
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Dodgers
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026
WSH @ LAD
3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026
LAD @ WSH
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
LAD @ WSH
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.744
OPS
▲
.762
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.7
vs
Washington: 3.9
Total Bases (L5)
+13.2% more
Los Angeles: 12.2
vs
Washington: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+12.2% more
Los Angeles: 8.1
vs
Washington: 7.2
OPS (Season)
+1.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
3
LAD Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.1
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 10.8
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +246 / -311
→
+224 / -280
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
WSH
LAD
WSH
ML
56%
92-73
57%
92-69
48%
79-87
54%
87-74
ATS
59%
98-67
58%
93-68
43%
72-94
57%
91-70
TTL
48%
77-82-6
50%
77-78-6
44%
70-90-6
42%
65-90-6
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