ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
56-86 | Road
7
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
66-76 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kade Morris
#67 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kade Morris | 0-1 | 9.82 | 2.11 | 14.2 | 10 |
| Logan Gilbert | 11-8 | 3.42 | 1.04 | 160.1 | 166 |
0-1
W-L
11-8
9.82
ERA
Ldr 3.42
2.11
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
14.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 160.1
10
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 166
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
30%
MARINERS
70%
ATHLETICS
34%
Book Odds: +192
MARINERS
70%
Book Odds: -237
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 2.80
Seattle
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 2.80
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mariners
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Mariners
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SEA @ ATH
7 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
SEA @ ATH
19 - 1
Sep 11, 2026
SEA @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 6, 2026
ATH @ SEA
0 - 2
Sep 5, 2026
ATH @ SEA
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.719
▲
OPS
.693
194
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.8% more
Seattle: 11.3
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+61.8% more
Athletics: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+28.4% more
Athletics: 19.7
vs
Seattle: 14.1
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Athletics: 0.4
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
7
SEA Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 11.6
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.1
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 8.2
2.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 19.7
16.0 / 25.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.3
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205
→
+192 / -237
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ATH
SEA
ATH
ML
50%
81-81
59%
95-67
52%
85-77
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
98-64
52%
84-78
59%
95-67
50%
81-80
TTL
56%
85-67-10
54%
84-73-5
53%
81-71-10
42%
66-90-5
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