Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rockies STL @ COL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

71-71  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

54-87  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andre Pallante 12-6 3.57 1.24 136.0 97
Ryan Feltner 5-9 5.84 1.55 101.2 76
12-6 W-L 5-9
3.57 Ldr ERA 5.84
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.55
136.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 101.2
97 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 76
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
62%
📊
ROCKIES
38%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (STL)
CARDINALS 57% Book Odds: -133
ROCKIES 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 57.10% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 11.0 47%
Under 11.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 6.20
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cardinals Win
62% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.691
OPS
▲ .739
167
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +53.5% more
St. Louis: 1.4 vs Colorado: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +36.1% more
St. Louis: 10.4 vs Colorado: 6.7
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Walks (L5) +13.1% more
Colorado: 3.8 vs St. Louis: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 6.0 7
COL Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.9 / 10.2 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 10.4 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 15.9 21.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.4 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -133 / +110 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 11 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
60% 97-64
53% 85-74
55% 88-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 89-70
52% 83-78
53% 85-76
TTL
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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