ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
74-68 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
73-69 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 9-12 | 5.08 | 1.48 | 141.2 | 95 |
| Cristian Javier | 1-5 | 6.45 | 1.63 | 44.2 | 42 |
9-12
W-L
1-5
5.08 Ldr
ERA
6.45
1.48 Ldr
WHIP
1.63
141.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
44.2
95 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
42
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
ASTROS
49%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
Book Odds: +109
ASTROS
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Houston
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
ARI @ HOU
3 - 2
Sep 5, 2026
ARI @ HOU
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
ARI @ HOU
1 - 3
Jul 23, 2025
HOU @ ARI
4 - 3
Jul 22, 2025
HOU @ ARI
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.2% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Home Runs (L5)
+12.0% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.2
1
HOU Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.2
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.1
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 9.6
11.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.2
7.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135
→
+109 / -131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ARI
HOU
ARI
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
56%
89-71
TTL
45%
70-84-9
52%
80-73-8
45%
69-86-9
49%
73-77-9
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