MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
67-74 | Road
1
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
74-67 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Erick Fedde
#47 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 9-8 | 4.58 | 1.26 | 112.0 | 93 |
| Erick Fedde | 7-8 | 4.16 | 1.37 | 123.1 | 88 |
9-8
W-L
7-8
4.58
ERA
Ldr 4.16
1.26 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
112.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 123.1
93 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
88
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
49%
WHITE SOX
51%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (MIN)
TWINS
48%
Book Odds: +108
WHITE SOX
57%
Book Odds: -130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
50%
Under 9.0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
MIN @ CHW
6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026
CHW @ MIN
1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CHW @ MIN
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.720
OPS
▲
.826
187
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Walks (L5)
+22.3% more
Chicago: 4.5
vs
Minnesota: 3.7
OPS (Season)
+10.6%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.8%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.8
1
CHW Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 9.5
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 17.0
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -105
→
+108 / -130
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIN
CHW
MIN
ML
49%
81-86
52%
84-78
56%
94-73
50%
80-81
ATS
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
59%
95-66
TTL
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-9
51%
84-81-2
53%
80-72-9
Contextual Game News
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