CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
80-62 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
71-71 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 8-10 | 4.01 | 1.14 | 150.1 | 148 |
| Janson Junk | 6-8 | 4.11 | 1.30 | 103.0 | 70 |
8-10
W-L
6-8
4.01 Ldr
ERA
4.11
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
150.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
103.0
148 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
70
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
54%
MARLINS
46%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (MIA)
CUBS
62%
Book Odds: -161
MARLINS
43%
Book Odds: +133
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.374
OPS
▲
.727
0
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+23.7% more
Chicago: 3.2
vs
Miami: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+9.1% more
Chicago: 2.0
vs
Miami: 1.8
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+391.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.2
6
MIA Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.4
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.3
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 15.1
6.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.2
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -129 / +107
→
-161 / +133
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48%
78-84
58%
93-68
55%
88-72
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-73-5
46%
72-83-6
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