ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
84-57 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
79-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 13-9 | 2.06 | 1.00 | 144.0 | 177 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 16-4 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 175.1 | 202 |
13-9
W-L
16-4
2.06 Ldr
ERA
2.52
1.00 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
144.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 175.1
177
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 202
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
47%
PHILLIES
53%
BRAVES
52%
Book Odds: -106
PHILLIES
53%
Book Odds: -114
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.20
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 4, 2026
ATL @ PHI
5 - 2
Apr 26, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Apr 25, 2026
PHI @ ATL
8 - 5
Apr 24, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Apr 19, 2026
ATL @ PHI
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
140
Games Played
▲
141
4.66
▲
Runs / Game
4.49
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.312
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.413
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.725
▲
OPS
.712
178
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+66.9% more
Atlanta: 1.5
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+44.3% more
Atlanta: 3.2
vs
Philadelphia: 1.8
Total Bases (L5)
+34.2% more
Atlanta: 15.6
vs
Philadelphia: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
5
PHI Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.5
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.5
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 15.6
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.2
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112
→
-106 / -114
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
84-57-0
(59.6%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PHI
79-62-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.1%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
63-71-7
O: 47.0% / U: 53.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
PHI
63-69-9
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
82-58
45%
63-76
51%
71-69
54%
75-65
ATS
65%
91-49
57%
79-60
47%
66-74
52%
73-67
TTL
57%
75-57-8
54%
71-61-7
86%
117-19-4
85%
118-21-1
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