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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

53-88  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

70-72  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jared Jones
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Jones

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Johnson 3-7 5.47 1.42 72.1 52
Jared Jones 2-6 4.83 1.28 72.2 83
3-7 W-L 2-6
5.47 ERA Ldr 4.83
1.42 WHIP Ldr 1.28
72.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 72.2
52 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 83
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
45%
📊
PIRATES
55%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (LAA)
ANGELS 38% Book Odds: +162
PIRATES 66% Book Odds: -198
Book Implied: 38.20% / 66.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5 61%
Under 8.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 PiratesPIT (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

64.6%

Pirates Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 LAA @ PIT 6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.679
OPS
▲ .734
154
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +45.8% more
Pittsburgh: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 3.0
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Hits (L5) +24.4% more
Pittsburgh: 8.6 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Home Runs (Season) +20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.0 0
PIT Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 6.9 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 10.9 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 10.9 7.0 / 4.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205 → +162 / -198 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
28%TICKETS72%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
88%TICKETS12%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAA
PIT
LAA
ML
52% 82-77
59% 96-66
52% 85-78
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-65
50% 81-82
51% 82-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 83-74-5
50% 79-78-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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