DETROIT
TIGERSDET
64-76 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
71-70 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Sears
#64 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sears | 0-1 | 6.75 | 1.35 | 6.2 | 4 |
| Foster Griffin | 15-4 | 3.21 | 1.12 | 154.1 | 139 |
0-1
W-L
15-4
6.75
ERA
Ldr 3.21
1.35
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
6.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 154.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 139
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
30%
GUARDIANS
70%
▲ Edge: +10.40% (CLE)
TIGERS
45%
Book Odds: +124
GUARDIANS
60%
Book Odds: -150
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-2 runs
13.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
5.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+11.9% more
Cleveland: 4.0
vs
Detroit: 3.6
Errors (L5)
+12.6% more
Detroit: 1.4
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+12.2% more
Detroit: 13.3
vs
Cleveland: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.5
6
CLE Score
5.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.5
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 9.4
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 13.3
21.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+124 / -150
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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