Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SF Austin @ McNeese SFA @ MCN

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

SF AUSTINSFA

6-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Navarre Stadium
View Odds Details →

MCNEESE

MCNEESEMCN

2-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Dillon McDougal

#21 | Punter
@
George Dixon
KEY GAME

George Dixon

#38 | Punter
Player
Dillon McDougal None-None
George Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SF AUSTIN
14%
📊
MCNEESE
86%
SF AUSTIN --
MCNEESE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.1
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.1 points (McNeese)
SF AustinSFA (-3.5) 0 McNeeseMCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SF Austin Cover

8.6%

McNeese Cover

91.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MCN -19.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)

SFA By 1-6 points

4.7%

SFA By 7-13 points

2.4%

MCN By 1-6 points

9.2%

MCN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14.7
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
33.8
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
14.7
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
33.8
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI McNeese Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Sim McNeese Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI McNeese (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.1
A
Sim McNeese (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.1
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
A
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SFA @ MCN 38 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.5% more
McNeese: 1.9 vs Stephen F. Austin: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.6% more
McNeese: 101.0 vs Stephen F. Austin: 83.0
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 15.8 vs McNeese: 12.8
Total Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 267.7 vs McNeese: 235.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 14.7 38
MCN Score 33.8 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
SFA
MCN
SFA
ML
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
100% 2-0
100% 1-0
TTL
50% 1-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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