Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Samford @ North Alabama SAM @ UNA

SAMFORD

SAMFORDSAM

1-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Joe Davis Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

NORTH ALABAMAUNA

4-2  |  Home

22
Key Game
Will Thorley
KEY GAME

Will Thorley

#59 | Punter
@
Raelon Sims
KEY GAME

Raelon Sims

#16 | Linebacker
Player
Will Thorley None-None
Raelon Sims None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAMFORD
11%
📊
NORTH ALABAMA
89%
SAMFORD --
NORTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.8
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.8 points (North Alabama)
SamfordSAM (-3.5) 0 North AlabamaUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Samford Cover

6.0%

North Alabama Cover

94.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNA -21.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

SAM By 1-6 points

3.4%

SAM By 7-13 points

1.6%

UNA By 1-6 points

7.3%

UNA By 7-13 points

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13
SAMFORD
34.8
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
13
SAMFORD
34.8
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Alabama Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim North Alabama Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Alabama (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -21.8
A
Sim North Alabama (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -21.8
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.8
A
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.8
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SAM @ UNA 10 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
North Alabama: 84.3 vs Samford: 74.2
Total Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Samford: 229.6 vs North Alabama: 210.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 13.0 10
UNA Score 34.8 22
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
SAM
UNA
SAM
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 2 hours, 42 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 8 hours, 33 minutes ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Purdue Insider Breaks Down Gophers Clash, NIL Challenges, and Ij…
twincities 1 day, 8 hours ago
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 20 hours ago