Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Abilene Chrstn @ Lamar ACU @ LAM

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

ABILENE CHRSTNACU

2-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Provost Umphrey Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAMAR

LAMARLAM

4-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jace Gilbert
KEY GAME

Jace Gilbert

#20 | Punter
@
Mason Stallons
KEY GAME

Mason Stallons

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Jace Gilbert None-None
Mason Stallons None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ABILENE CHRSTN
48%
📊
LAMAR
52%
ABILENE CHRSTN --
LAMAR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Lamar)
Abilene ChrstnACU (-3.5) 0 LamarLAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Abilene Chrstn Cover

48.6%

Lamar Cover

51.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAM -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)

ACU By 1-6 points

16.3%

ACU By 7-13 points

15.0%

LAM By 1-6 points

16.6%

LAM By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
23.3
LAMAR
Simulated Score
22.8
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
23.3
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lamar Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Lamar Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lamar (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Lamar (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.1
A
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.1
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ACU @ LAM 14 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.6% more
Lamar: 1.5 vs Abilene Christian: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +27.7% more
Abilene Christian: 363.4 vs Lamar: 262.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Abilene Christian: 114.6 vs Lamar: 91.9
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Abilene Christian: 17.8 vs Lamar: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 22.8 14
LAM Score 23.3 21
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
ACU
LAM
ACU
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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