Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Morgan St @ NC A&T MORG @ NCAT

MORGAN STATE

MORGAN STMORG

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 6:00 PM ET
Truist Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA A&T

NC A&TNCAT

0-1  |  Home

7
AI Model Win Probability
MORGAN ST
13%
📊
NC A&T
87%
MORGAN ST --
NC A&T --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.9
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.9 points (North Carolina A&T)
Morgan StMORG (-3.5) 0 NC A&TNCAT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Morgan St Cover

6.8%

NC A&T Cover

93.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCAT -20.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCAT)

MORG By 1-6 points

3.8%

MORG By 7-13 points

1.8%

NCAT By 1-6 points

7.9%

NCAT By 7-13 points

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12.3
MORGAN STATE
33.2
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
12.3
MORGAN STATE
33.2
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC A&T Loss
87% Win Prob
B
Sim NC A&T Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC A&T (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.9
B
Sim NC A&T (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.9
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.5
B
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.5
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 MORG @ NCAT 17 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.7% more
North Carolina A&T: 173.1 vs Morgan State: 114.1
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
North Carolina A&T: 17.5 vs Morgan State: 15.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
North Carolina A&T: 0.4 vs Morgan State: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.1% more
North Carolina A&T: 287.1 vs Morgan State: 256.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 12.3 17
NCAT Score 33.2 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
MORG
NCAT
MORG
ML
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
ATS
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
0% 0-1
TTL
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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