Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern @ Alabama St SOU @ ALST

SOUTHERN

SOUTHERNSOU

2-4  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Legion Field (AL)
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

ALABAMA STALST

3-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Christopher McKenna
KEY GAME

Christopher McKenna

#34 | Place kicker
@
Trevor Bywater
KEY GAME

Trevor Bywater

#26 | Punter
Player
Christopher McKenna None-None
Trevor Bywater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN
10%
📊
ALABAMA ST
90%
SOUTHERN --
ALABAMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Alabama State)
SouthernSOU (-3.5) 0 Alabama StALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Cover

5.0%

Alabama St Cover

95.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALST -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

SOU By 1-6 points

2.9%

SOU By 7-13 points

1.3%

ALST By 1-6 points

6.5%

ALST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
12
SOUTHERN
35
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
12
SOUTHERN
35
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama St Loss
90% Win Prob
A
Sim Alabama St Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama St (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
A
Sim Alabama St (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 SOU @ ALST 30 - 17
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Alabama State: 15.1 vs Southern: 13.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Alabama State: 265.4 vs Southern: 237.2
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Alabama State: 0.6 vs Southern: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.4% more
Southern: 134.6 vs Alabama State: 84.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 12.0 30
ALST Score 35.0 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ALST
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ALST
--
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
ALST
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
SOU
ALST
SOU
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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