Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rhode Island @ Merrimack URI @ MRMK

RHODE ISLAND

RHODE ISLANDURI

3-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Duane Stadium
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

MERRIMACKMRMK

2-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
Randy Leavitt
KEY GAME

Randy Leavitt

#32 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Nick Araujo

#51 | Place kicker
Player
Randy Leavitt None-None
Nick Araujo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RHODE ISLAND
20%
📊
MERRIMACK
80%
RHODE ISLAND --
MERRIMACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.9
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.9 points (Merrimack)
Rhode IslandURI (-3.5) 0 MerrimackMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rhode Island Cover

14.4%

Merrimack Cover

85.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRMK -14.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

URI By 1-6 points

7.2%

URI By 7-13 points

4.2%

MRMK By 1-6 points

12.2%

MRMK By 7-13 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
15.9
RHODE ISLAND
30.8
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
15.9
RHODE ISLAND
30.8
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Merrimack Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Merrimack Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Merrimack (+21) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.9
A
Sim Merrimack (+21) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.9
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.7
A
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.7
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 URI @ MRMK 34 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.5% more
Merrimack: 127.3 vs Rhode Island: 73.8
Turnovers (L5) +79.1% more
Rhode Island: 2.1 vs Merrimack: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Rhode Island: 0.4 vs Merrimack: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Rhode Island: 304.3 vs Merrimack: 274.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
URI Score 15.9 34
MRMK Score 30.8 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
URI
MRMK
URI
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
TTL
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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