Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Arkansas @ UT Martin CARK @ UTM

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

C ARKANSASCARK

2-3  |  Road

36
FINAL
Thu, Aug 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Hardy M. Graham Stadium
View Odds Details →

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

1-4  |  Home

24
AI Model Win Probability
C ARKANSAS
39%
đź“Š
UT MARTIN
61%
C ARKANSAS --
UT MARTIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
â–˛ Edge: +5.2 points (UT Martin)
C ArkansasCARK (-3.5) 0 UT MartinUTM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Arkansas Cover

35.5%

UT Martin Cover

64.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTM -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)

CARK By 1-6 points

14.0%

CARK By 7-13 points

11.1%

UTM By 1-6 points

16.8%

UTM By 7-13 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
19.1
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
24.3
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
19.1
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
24.3
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UT Martin Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim UT Martin Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI UT Martin (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.2
B
Sim UT Martin (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.2
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.4
A
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.4
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 CARK @ UTM 36 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.9% more
Central Arkansas: 143.9 vs UT Martin: 96.5
Turnovers (L5) +29.9% more
Central Arkansas: 1.4 vs UT Martin: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Central Arkansas: 369.5 vs UT Martin: 286.3
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Central Arkansas: 18.1 vs UT Martin: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 19.1 36
UTM Score 24.3 24
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
CARK
UTM
CARK
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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