GARDNER-WEBB
GARDNER-WEBBGWEB
0-1 | Road
17
AUSTIN PEAY
AUSTIN PEAYAPSU
1-0 | Home
35
AI Model Win Probability
GARDNER-WEBB
25%
AUSTIN PEAY
75%
GARDNER-WEBB
--
AUSTIN PEAY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.5
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GWEB +12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)
GWEB By 1-6 points
8.9%
GWEB By 7-13 points
5.6%
APSU By 1-6 points
13.8%
APSU By 7-13 points
19.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Gardner-Webb
18.2
GARDNER-WEBB
Austin Peay
30.7
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Gardner-Webb
18.2
GARDNER-WEBB
Austin Peay
30.7
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Austin Peay
Win
75% Win Prob
C
Sim
Austin Peay
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gardner-Webb (-14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +12.5
C
Sim
Gardner-Webb (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +12.5
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u59.5
Win
Proj Total: 48.9
C
Sim
u59.5
Win
Proj Total: 48.9
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
GWEB @ APSU
17 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+10.5% more
Austin Peay: 101.6
vs
Gardner-Webb: 92.0
Turnovers (L5)
+35.3% more
Gardner-Webb: 2.4
vs
Austin Peay: 1.5
Total Yards (L5)
+12.3% more
Gardner-Webb: 307.6
vs
Austin Peay: 269.8
First Downs (L5)
+9.6% more
Gardner-Webb: 17.6
vs
Austin Peay: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score
18.2
17
APSU Score
30.7
35
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
GWEB
APSU
GWEB
ML
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
ATS
0%
0-1
0%
0-1
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
TTL
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
100%
1-0
100%
1-0