Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Illinois @ Murray St EIU @ MUR

EASTERN ILLINOIS

E ILLINOISEIU

1-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Thu, Aug 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Roy Stewart Stadium
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

MURRAY STMUR

1-5  |  Home

14
AI Model Win Probability
E ILLINOIS
13%
📊
MURRAY ST
87%
E ILLINOIS --
MURRAY ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.6
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.6 points (Murray State)
E IllinoisEIU (-3.5) 0 Murray StMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Illinois Cover

7.1%

Murray St Cover

92.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MUR -20.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

EIU By 1-6 points

3.9%

EIU By 7-13 points

1.9%

MUR By 1-6 points

8.1%

MUR By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
12.9
EASTERN ILLINOIS
33.5
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
12.9
EASTERN ILLINOIS
33.5
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Murray St Loss
87% Win Prob
A
Sim Murray St Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Murray St (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.6
A
Sim Murray St (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.6
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.4
A
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.4
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 EIU @ MUR 28 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.5% more
Murray State: 106.2 vs Eastern Illinois: 65.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EIU Score 12.9 28
MUR Score 33.5 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
EIU
MUR
EIU
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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