Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Sevilla vs Atlético Sevilla vs Atlético

SEVILLASEVILLA

2-0-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

2-1-0  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
SEVILLA
35%
DRAW
31%
ATLÉTICO
35%
▲ Edge: +26.20% (Sevilla)
24% Book Odds: +320
DRAW --
52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 23.80% / % / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 45%
Under 2.5 55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Sevilla)
SevillaSevilla (+0.5) 0 AtléticoAtlético (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.0% / 58.0%

Shots (On Goal)

20(5) / 12(5)

Corners

4 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Sevilla By 1 goal

21.1%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

15.9%

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlético Madrid Loss
54% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sevilla (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim Atlético Madrid (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim u2.3 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Sevilla vs Atlético 1 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 Sevilla vs Atlético 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 Atlético vs Sevilla 3 - 0
Apr 6, 2025 Sevilla vs Atlético 1 - 2
Dec 8, 2024 Atlético vs Sevilla 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlético: 1.0 vs Sevilla: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Atlético: 2.0 vs Sevilla: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Atlético: 8.0 vs Sevilla: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Sevilla: 6.0 vs Atlético: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético Madrid Score 1.0 3
Sevilla Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Sevilla (Home) vs Atlético Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sevilla Share: 50.0% Atlético Madrid Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sevilla
Atlético Madrid
Sevilla
Atlético Madrid
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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