ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
70-71 | Road
2
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
83-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Mathews | 1-2 | 5.03 | 1.58 | 19.2 | 20 |
| Tarik Skubal | 8-7 | 2.84 | 0.94 | 126.2 | 153 |
1-2
W-L
8-7
5.03
ERA
Ldr 2.84
1.58
WHIP
Ldr 0.94
19.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 126.2
20
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 153
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
24%
DODGERS
76%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (LAD)
CARDINALS
30%
Book Odds: +234
DODGERS
75%
Book Odds: -293
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
STL @ LAD
2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
STL @ LAD
8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
STL @ LAD
13 - 8
May 3, 2026
LAD @ STL
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
LAD @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.691
OPS
▲
.762
167
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+22.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+7.1%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.6%
Los Angeles: 42.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.5
2
LAD Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.3
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 10.6
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 17.4
8.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.5
8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +203 / -252
→
+234 / -293
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
STL
LAD
STL
ML
56%
92-73
53%
85-74
48%
79-87
52%
84-77
ATS
59%
98-67
56%
89-70
43%
72-94
53%
85-76
TTL
48%
77-82-6
46%
68-81-10
44%
70-90-6
50%
76-75-10
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