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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

55-86  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

66-75  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jack Perkins
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Perkins

#50 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kade Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Kade Anderson

#13 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Perkins 3-10 6.42 1.49 95.1 109
Kade Anderson 0-0 4.50 1.30 10.0 8
3-10 W-L 0-0
6.42 ERA Ldr 4.50
1.49 WHIP Ldr 1.30
95.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 10.0
109 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 8
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
50%
📊
MARINERS
50%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (ATH)
ATHLETICS 36% Book Odds: +177
MARINERS 69% Book Odds: -217
Book Implied: 36.10% / 68.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 61%
Under 7.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

64.6%

Mariners Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
2
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SEA @ ATH 7 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 SEA @ ATH 19 - 1
Sep 11, 2026 SEA @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 6, 2026 ATH @ SEA 0 - 2
Sep 5, 2026 ATH @ SEA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.719 ▲
OPS
.693
194 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.1% more
Athletics: 2.1 vs Seattle: 1.2
Walks (L5) +42.4% more
Athletics: 5.0 vs Seattle: 2.9
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Athletics: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +15.6% more
Athletics: 18.5 vs Seattle: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.5 7
SEA Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 10.4 9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.3 18.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 18.5 11.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.0 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205 → +177 / -217 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
17%TICKETS83%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ATH
SEA
ATH
ML
50% 81-81
59% 95-67
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 98-64
52% 84-78
59% 95-67
50% 81-80
TTL
56% 85-67-10
54% 84-73-5
53% 81-71-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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