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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

71-70  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

63-78  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sandy Alcantara
STARTING PITCHER

Sandy Alcantara

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sandy Alcantara 13-8 3.46 1.19 189.2 140
Michael Wacha 8-8 3.32 1.10 170.2 136
13-8 W-L 8-8
3.46 ERA Ldr 3.32
1.19 WHIP Ldr 1.10
189.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 170.2
140 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 136
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
39%
📊
ROYALS
61%
▲ Edge: +5.50% (KC)
MARLINS 49% Book Odds: +105
ROYALS 56% Book Odds: -127
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Royals Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim Marlins Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MIA @ KC 3 - 7
Sep 2, 2026 MIA @ KC 9 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 MIA @ KC 6 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 KC @ MIA 7 - 4
Jul 19, 2025 KC @ MIA 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727 ▲
OPS
.718
168
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +18.2% more
Kansas City: 3.8 vs Miami: 3.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 40.2% vs Miami: 40.0%
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Miami: 0.7 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +30.6% more
Miami: 9.6 vs Kansas City: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 3
KC Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 9.5 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 9.6 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 16.7 20.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -111 → +105 / -127 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIA
KC
MIA
ML
55% 89-72
48% 78-84
56% 90-70
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 91-71
58% 93-67
54% 86-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
56% 88-69-5
54% 83-70-7
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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