Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cubs MIL @ CHC

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

87-54  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

79-62  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Logan Henderson
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Henderson

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kevin Gausman
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Gausman

#12 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Henderson 9-2 2.48 0.83 76.1 86
Kevin Gausman 8-11 4.52 1.27 155.1 156
9-2 W-L 8-11
2.48 Ldr ERA 4.52
0.83 Ldr WHIP 1.27
76.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 155.1
86 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 156
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
53%
📊
CUBS
47%
BREWERS 55% Book Odds: -121
CUBS 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 54.80% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
BrewersMIL (-1.5) 0 CubsCHC (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

36.3%

Cubs Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 CHC @ MIL 6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026 MIL @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026 MIL @ CHC 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.743 ▲
OPS
.374
154 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +90.3% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +36.9%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.2 1
CHC Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 11.6 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.5 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 17.6 7.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.3 / 4.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +134 → -121 / +100 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
89%TICKETS11%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIL
CHC
MIL
ML
58% 93-68
62% 101-61
51% 82-79
52% 84-78
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 94-68
47% 75-85-1
48% 78-84
TTL
52% 81-74-6
40% 62-92-8
46% 72-83-6
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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