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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

76-65  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

69-72  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jake Bennett
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Bennett

#64 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Bennett 9-6 3.27 1.04 93.2 74
Brandon Young 9-3 3.38 1.34 130.1 103
9-6 W-L 9-3
3.27 Ldr ERA 3.38
1.04 Ldr WHIP 1.34
93.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.1
74 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 103
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
54%
📊
ORIOLES
46%
RED SOX 55% Book Odds: -123
ORIOLES 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 55.20% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

36.3%

Orioles Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.409
OPS
▲ .711
2
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Boston: 0.7 vs Baltimore: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +42.3% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Baltimore: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +36.0% more
Boston: 17.7 vs Baltimore: 11.3
Walks (L5) +32.3% more
Boston: 4.1 vs Baltimore: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.2 6
BAL Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 10.4 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 6.8 13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 17.7 16.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -123 / +102 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53% 83-73
50% 80-80
57% 90-69
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
48% 79-84
TTL
54% 81-70-5
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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