Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Villarreal Alavés vs Villarreal

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

2-1-0  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 3:30 PM ET
Mendizorrotza

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

0-2-1  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
35%
DRAW
31%
VILLARREAL
35%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (Villarreal)
32% Book Odds: +215
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +250
43% Book Odds: +135
Book Implied: 31.70% / 28.60% / 42.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 48%
Under 2.5 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Alavés)
AlavésAlavés (+0.2) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

24.1% / 75.9%

Shots (On Goal)

9(2) / 19(6)

Corners

5 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

Villarreal By 1 goal

21.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.10
1
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.10
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
36% Win Prob
C
Sim Villarreal Loss
62% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alavés (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Villarreal (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 Alavés vs Villarreal 1 - 0
Mar 13, 2026 Alavés vs Villarreal 1 - 1
Jan 10, 2026 Villarreal vs Alavés 3 - 1
Mar 8, 2025 Alavés vs Villarreal 1 - 0
Nov 9, 2024 Villarreal vs Alavés 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Villarreal: 14.0 vs Alavés: 7.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Villarreal: 0.0 vs Alavés: 1.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Villarreal: 3.0 vs Alavés: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Alavés: 4.0 vs Villarreal: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 1.0 0
Alavés Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Alavés (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 50.0% Villarreal Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Villarreal
Alavés
Villarreal
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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