BARCELONABARCELONA
3-0-0 | Home
2
ATHLETICATHLETIC
1-0-2 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
BARCELONA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATHLETIC
18%
▲ Edge: +14.40% (Athletic Club)
81%
Book Odds: -425
DRAW
--
8%
Book Odds: +1100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ATHLETIC
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Athletic)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
70.2% / 29.8%
Shots (On Goal)
22(10) / 5(0)
Corners
12 / 5
Cards (Y/R)
1/0 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Athletic Club +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Athletic Club)
Barcelona By 1 goal
26.1%
Barcelona By 2+ goals
36.9%
Athletic Club By 1 goal
11.1%
Athletic Club By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Barcelona
2
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Athletic
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Barcelona
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Athletic
0
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Barcelona
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim
Barcelona
Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletic Club (+1.75)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim
Barcelona (-1.75)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
Barcelona vs Athletic
2 - 0
Mar 7, 2026
Athletic vs Barcelona
0 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
Barcelona vs Athletic
4 - 0
May 25, 2025
Athletic vs Barcelona
0 - 3
Aug 24, 2024
Barcelona vs Athletic
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5)
+300.0% more
Barcelona: 1.0
vs
Athletic: 4.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+200.0% more
Barcelona: 15.0
vs
Athletic: 5.0
Wins (L5)
+200.0% more
Barcelona: 3.0
vs
Athletic: 1.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Barcelona: 1.0
vs
Athletic: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Athletic Club Score
1.0
0
Barcelona Score
2.0
2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Barcelona (Home)
vs
Athletic Club (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Barcelona
Athletic Club
Barcelona
Athletic Club
ML
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
100%
3-0