Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

5-0-2  |  Home

4
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 3:00 PM ET
Santiago Bernabéu

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

3-1-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
REAL MADRID
61%
DRAW
21%
REAL SOCIEDAD
18%
▲ Edge: +23.60% (Real Sociedad)
84% Book Odds: -525
DRAW --
8% Book Odds: +1200
Book Implied: 84% / % / 7.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 46%
Under 3.5 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Goal Line
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Real Sociedad)
Real MadridReal Madrid (-2.5) 0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad (+2.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.7% / 49.3%

Shots (On Goal)

20(11) / 10(3)

Corners

4 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Real Sociedad +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Sociedad)

Real Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 0.50
Simulated Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 0.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Madrid Win
69% Win Prob
B
Sim Real Madrid Win
83% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Sociedad (+2.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Real Sociedad (-2.25) Loss
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o3.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 4 - 1
Feb 14, 2026 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 4 - 1
Sep 13, 2025 Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid 1 - 2
May 24, 2025 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 2 - 0
Sep 14, 2024 Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Real Sociedad: 0.0
Losses (L5) +400.0% more
Real Madrid: 0.0 vs Real Sociedad: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +175.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Real Sociedad: 11.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Real Madrid: 10.0 vs Real Sociedad: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 1
Real Madrid Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Real Madrid (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Madrid Share: 66.7% Real Sociedad Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
ML
71% 5-2
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
TTL
67% 4-2-1
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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