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SPURSSPURS

0-0-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 12:30 PM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

1-1-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
61%
DRAW
21%
NEWCASTLE
18%
▲ Edge: +20.90% (Newcastle United)
46% Book Odds: +119
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
31% Book Odds: +225
Book Implied: 45.70% / 26.30% / 30.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 53%
Under 3.0 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SPURS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Spurs)
SpursSpurs (-0.2) 0 NewcastleNewcastle (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.5% / 42.5%

Shots (On Goal)

17(6) / 11(2)

Corners

9 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tottenham Hotspur -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tottenham Hotspur)

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

26.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

36.9%

Newcastle United By 1 goal

11.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tottenham Hotspur Loss
48% Win Prob
B
Sim Tottenham Hotspur Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tottenham Hotspur (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Tottenham Hotspur (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 Spurs vs Newcastle 0 - 2
Feb 10, 2026 Spurs vs Newcastle 1 - 2
Dec 2, 2025 Newcastle vs Spurs 2 - 2
Jan 4, 2025 Spurs vs Newcastle 1 - 2
Sep 1, 2024 Newcastle vs Spurs 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Spurs: 2.0 vs Newcastle: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Spurs: 1.0 vs Newcastle: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +42.9% more
Spurs: 7.0 vs Newcastle: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +37.5% more
Spurs: 11.0 vs Newcastle: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Newcastle United Score 1.0 2
Tottenham Hotspur Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tottenham Hotspur (Home) vs Newcastle United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tottenham Hotspur Share: 66.7% Newcastle United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
ATS
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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